3 Predictions for Disability Insurance Over the Next 5 Years

Key Takeaways: Disability insurance premiums for newly issued policies could continue rising through 2031 as insurers account for inflation, higher operating costs and long-term financial commitments.Existing non-cancelable policies will protect your premium from increases, even if insurers raise prices for new applicants.Guaranteed standard issue (GSI) disability insurance could become more widely available overall, while individual residency programs may gain or lose access based on enrollment and insurer requirements.Another major insurer could stop issuing new individual disability policies, reducing coverage options for future buyers without automatically affecting existing contracts.

Physicians, dentists and medical residents should review their current insurance options, policy protections and eligibility before making coverage decisions.A physician who buys disability insurance in 2031 will likely pay more than one who buys the same coverage today, and the open questions are how much more and whether the same insurers will still be selling it when that time comes.Mutual of Omaha already answered the second question for itself when it stopped issuing new individual disability policies in January 2026.Existing policyholders kept their coverage, but anyone shopping for a new policy had one fewer company to consider.

Here are my three predictions for the next five years, along with what each one means if you’re a physician, dentist or resident who hasn’t bought coverage yet.1.Why disability insurance premiums could keep increasing Of my three predictions, this is the one I'm most confident about.I think disability insurance premiums for new policies will continue increasing over the next five years, largely because of inflation and the long-term commitments insurers make when they issue coverage.

Consider a 30-year-old physician purchasing a non-cancelable disability insurance policy.Depending on the contract, that physician can typically renew the policy at the same premium until age 65, as long as they keep the coverage in force.That's 35 years during which the insurance company has to honor the original premium, even as its expenses change.Think about how much prices can change over that period for different products.

Used cars, houses, even Pokémon cards have seen wild fluctuations lately.Now imagine trying to set an insurance premium today that will still make financial sense decades from now.When insurers price these policies, they have to estimate future claims, employee salaries, administrative expenses and other operating costs.They also have to account for how many policyholders might become disabled and how much those claims could cost.

Inflation makes those estimates more challenging.According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S.consumer prices rose 9.1% over the 12 months ending June 2022.Inflation has moderated since then, but prices were still rising 3.7% annually as of September 2026.

For an insurer that has already committed to decades of fixed premiums, rising expenses can create financial pressure.If claims or operating costs exceed the original projections, the company generally can't recover those additional costs by increasing premiums on existing non-cancelable policies.Instead, it may adjust the premiums it charges new applicants.This distinction matters because disability insurance contracts offer different renewal protections.

A non-cancelable policy generally guarantees your premium for the specified renewal period, provided you keep the policy in force.A policy that's only guaranteed renewable may allow the insurer to increase premiums for an entire class of policyholders.I expect insurers to continue adjusting prices for newly issued policies as they account for higher expenses and uncertainty about future costs.Someone purchasing disability insurance in 2031 could face significantly higher premiums than someone purchasing comparable coverage today.

The actual increase will depend on the insurer, policy and applicant, but I think the overall direction of pricing is likely to remain upward.Get the best price on own occupation disability insurance SLP Insurance will find you the best price even if it's not with us.Fill out the form below to get discounts of up to 30%.2.

Why GSI disability insurance availability could change My second prediction is that the guaranteed standard issue disability insurance market will continue expanding, but access to these programs could become less predictable at individual residency programs.GSI disability insurance is available through certain residency and fellowship programs.It allows eligible physicians to purchase individual disability coverage without going through the traditional medical underwriting process.That can be especially valuable if you have a medical condition that might otherwise make it difficult to qualify for coverage.

There's evidence that insurers see opportunities to grow this part of their business.According to Gen Re's 2025 survey, new GSI sales premium increased 30.9% to $105.5 million among seven reporting carriers.For insurers, establishing relationships with residency programs creates an opportunity to reach groups of young physicians who may maintain their policies for decades.I expect some carriers to continue expanding their GSI offerings to attract more of that business.

But other insurers may decide to reduce or eliminate programs that aren't attracting enough participation.Why resident participation matters When an insurance company offers GSI coverage, it takes on applicants without the same individual medical screening used for traditionally underwritten policies.That makes participation especially important.Insurers need enough residents enrolling to maintain a reasonable balance of risk.

A carrier may want at least 40% of residents to participate in a GSI program, although the exact requirement can vary.Consider a hypothetical residency program where many healthier residents decide to skip disability coverage.Residents with significant medical histories, who may have difficulty qualifying for coverage elsewhere, might be more interested in enrolling.The insurer could end up covering a group with a higher risk of disability claims than it originally anticipated.

If participation remains too low, the carrier may decide that continuing the program no longer makes financial sense.That creates two possible outcomes over the next several years.A residency program that doesn't offer GSI coverage today could gain a program as an insurer looks to expand.Another hospital could lose its existing GSI offering because enrollment isn't meeting the carrier's requirements.

Both developments could happen while the overall GSI market continues growing.For medical residents and fellows, the important distinction is between growth across the insurance industry and the coverage available through your specific training program.If you currently have access to GSI disability insurance, it's worth reviewing your eligibility and available options.The program offered during your residency may change before you finish training.

3.Could another major insurer leave the disability market? My third prediction is more speculative: I think at least one additional major insurance carrier could stop issuing new individual disability insurance policies within the next five years.Mutual of Omaha's withdrawal shows that even an established insurer can decide to leave this market.The company cited lower-than-expected sales and changes in the disability insurance marketplace when announcing its decision.

Other carriers could eventually reach a similar conclusion if issuing new disability policies becomes too financially difficult to justify.One challenge is finding a premium that adequately covers the insurer's risk while remaining affordable enough to attract applicants, and still generate a profit for the insurance company.Dentists are a good example.From what I understand, insurance companies have struggled to make individual disability insurance for dentists consistently profitable.

They have to decide how much to charge for coverage while staying competitive and collecting enough premiums to support the business.If prices get too high, healthier dentists may decide against purchasing coverage.That leaves the insurer with fewer lower-risk policyholders to help balance the potential claim costs.The insurer may then face even more pressure to increase premiums, making it harder to attract the mix of applicants it needs.

Profitability also matters when insurers decide where to invest their resources.Many companies selling disability insurance also offer products such as whole life insurance and annuities.From a business perspective, those products may be more financially attractive than individual disability insurance.A carrier could eventually decide that it would rather focus its resources on those other products than continue issuing new disability policies.

I wouldn't treat another major carrier's exit as a certainty.This is my boldest prediction, and a reputable insurer selling disability coverage today could continue doing so for many years.But if another carrier does withdraw, people shopping for coverage would have fewer companies to consider.Depending on which insurer leaves, the decision could also affect pricing and coverage options for certain professions.

For existing policyholders, the situation would be different.An insurer that stops issuing new policies would generally still have to honor its existing contracts, including the protections those policies provide.The main impact would fall on people who haven't purchased coverage yet.What these predictions mean for your disability coverage We can't know exactly how the disability insurance market will change between now and 2031.

Some insurers may expand their offerings, others may pull back and premiums for new policies could increase at different rates.For your own coverage decisions, I'd focus on the options available to you today and the protections those options provide.If you already have an individual disability insurance policy, review its renewal provisions.Understand whether your premium is guaranteed, how long you can renew the policy and what rights you have under the contract.

Those details become especially important if your insurer later stops selling new policies.If you're a medical resident or fellow, find out whether your training program currently offers GSI disability insurance.Pay attention to your eligibility and any enrollment requirements, particularly if your medical history could make traditional underwriting difficult.And if you're considering purchasing an individual policy, evaluate the coverage available for your specialty, health history and budget.

Securing a policy now may give you access to pricing or options that change in the future, but predictions alone shouldn't determine whether a particular policy is right for you.The next five years could bring meaningful changes to the disability insurance market.Reviewing what's available now can help you make a more informed decision before those options change.If you're evaluating your coverage, SLP Insurance can help you compare disability insurance quotes, review available options and understand the protections each policy provides.

Compare disability insurance quotes and save SLP Insurance will find you the best price on own occupation coverage, even if it's not with us.Fill out the form below for a quote with up to 30% discounts.Frequently asked questions Will disability insurance become more expensive over the next five years? Disability insurance premiums for new policies could continue rising through 2031 as insurers account for inflation, claims and operating costs.The amount of any increase will depend on the insurer, policy and applicant.

Can my disability insurance premium increase after I buy a policy? It depends on your policy.Non-cancelable coverage generally guarantees your premium during the specified renewal period, provided you maintain coverage.A guaranteed renewable policy without that protection may allow the insurer to raise premiums for an entire class of policyholders.Will GSI disability insurance still be available during my residency? Guaranteed standard issue (GSI) disability insurance availability depends on your training program and its insurer.

Some programs may expand, while others may end due to low enrollment.If you're currently eligible, review your options and enrollment requirements before coverage changes.What happens to my disability insurance if the company stops selling policies? If an insurer stops issuing new disability insurance policies, existing coverage generally remains in force under the contract's terms.Your renewal provisions and premium guarantees still apply.

However, new applicants may have fewer insurers and coverage options.Should I buy disability insurance now before prices increase? Buying disability insurance now could give you access to premiums and coverage options that may change in the future.However, your decision should depend on your specialty, health history, budget and policy terms.Residents should also check their eligibility for GSI coverage.